Some Predictions on Afghanistan

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Today – October 15, 2009 I would like to analyze what I see happening with the politics of the war in Afghanistan and where I predict things will go.

There seems to be an ongoing effort to make Vice President Joe Biden appear as an expert in foreign affairs. This despite the fact that he has heretofore been relegated to a position of near anonymity by this Administration. Why? I believe the answer is that President Obama has no intention of sending anything close to the 40,000 troops requested by General McChrystal, and he needs a fall guy. By painting Biden as the foreign affairs genius, he can put in a much smaller number of troops and say that Biden’s vast foreign policy experience is why he was selected as VP.

So why would he do this? First, as I said, it gives the President political cover as he refuses the requests of a General he hand-picked to run the theater in Afghanistan. Second, it buys him time to attempt to push through Health-Care reform. By appeasing his far left, and not completely alienating Democratic moderates he puts himself in prime position to weave a coalition of Democrats and very left-leaning Repbulicans (read Olympia Snowe and Susan Collins) to pass the Health-Care legislation. Frankly, I believe this is the primary reason since he knows that a total loss on Health-Care would be an unmitigated disaster for his Presidency. Third, he believes he can buy enough time in Afghanistan with fewer troops (or possibly not adding any at this time) to keep from losing there completely while he passes his domestic agenda. After this he may well get serious about Afghanistan.